The market went down so sharply on Tuesday and Wednesday and so many people were shorting the stocks that a short covering rally yesterday was inevitable. Specialists do add fuel to the fire but who are the fools who buy in these risky markets? Now that the sentiment has reversed , we should have further declines to new lows below yesterday's lows.
GDP for 4th Quarter was up only 2.4% compared to 5% in 3rd Quarter. That should bring the market down nicely. It clearly points out again that printing more dollars does not bring growth.
Some of the indices like Russell 2000 are starting their 3rd step down At any rate we expect new lows today or may be by Monday. The rally in DJI may have been because DJI found support near lows established in December. When that support is broken we should have further
declines to new lows. We have no Buy signal yet.
Weakest sector remains the Russell 2000.
Long term interest rates are hitting new lows today. Our Long Term Interest rate Motif is doing very well.
The dollat went up so much last year that it is having adverse effect on companies which have export markets and will continue to do so at least in the first half of this year.
Natural gas went down yesterday and Natural Gas 3X Bearish ETF DGAZ went up nicely. We expect it to go still higher. Our Natural Gas Motif is the best performing. motif this year.
Volatility is expected to go to new highs when the down trend resumes. This motif is also performing well.
Gold and Silver completed their 4th step down yesterday and are ready to go to new highs above recent highs in step 5 up. After that we expect a nice decline.
Sanctions against Russia were extended by 6 months yesterday in spite of opposition by Greece.
Greece can easily be saved by Russia and this is start of cozy relations between the two countries. Russia reduced their interest rate from 17% to 15% today. Ruble weakened immediately and their market is now weakening as well.
We rebalanced our Russian and Chinese Motifs yesterday. So we became bearish on both Chinese and Russian markets yesterday based on technical analysis alone.
Indian market remains the strongest worldwide. It is up 8% since the beginning of this year.
Weakness in Chinese market is also starting because of weakness in US economy.
All of our motifs are based on our book where we use trend following approach. Most mutual funds are showing declines this year and for the whole year. As the year moves on their performance will become worse. What a contrast!
DJI
SPY
NYA Will start going down again to new lows
IWM
TNA
GLD is ready to go up again
GDX
NUGT Ready to go above recent highs
DGAZ Going higher
UGAZ Making New Lows
YINN Giving a SELL Signal
Yang Going Higher
Russian market starting to go down again and RUSS will now go up .
RUSL going down
XLE going Lower
ERX Going lower
ERY going Higher
UVXY Going Higher
SVXY Going Lower
TLT
TMF
GDP for 4th Quarter was up only 2.4% compared to 5% in 3rd Quarter. That should bring the market down nicely. It clearly points out again that printing more dollars does not bring growth.
Some of the indices like Russell 2000 are starting their 3rd step down At any rate we expect new lows today or may be by Monday. The rally in DJI may have been because DJI found support near lows established in December. When that support is broken we should have further
declines to new lows. We have no Buy signal yet.
Weakest sector remains the Russell 2000.
Long term interest rates are hitting new lows today. Our Long Term Interest rate Motif is doing very well.
The dollat went up so much last year that it is having adverse effect on companies which have export markets and will continue to do so at least in the first half of this year.
Natural gas went down yesterday and Natural Gas 3X Bearish ETF DGAZ went up nicely. We expect it to go still higher. Our Natural Gas Motif is the best performing. motif this year.
Volatility is expected to go to new highs when the down trend resumes. This motif is also performing well.
Gold and Silver completed their 4th step down yesterday and are ready to go to new highs above recent highs in step 5 up. After that we expect a nice decline.
Sanctions against Russia were extended by 6 months yesterday in spite of opposition by Greece.
Greece can easily be saved by Russia and this is start of cozy relations between the two countries. Russia reduced their interest rate from 17% to 15% today. Ruble weakened immediately and their market is now weakening as well.
We rebalanced our Russian and Chinese Motifs yesterday. So we became bearish on both Chinese and Russian markets yesterday based on technical analysis alone.
Indian market remains the strongest worldwide. It is up 8% since the beginning of this year.
Weakness in Chinese market is also starting because of weakness in US economy.
All of our motifs are based on our book where we use trend following approach. Most mutual funds are showing declines this year and for the whole year. As the year moves on their performance will become worse. What a contrast!
DJI
SPY
NYA Will start going down again to new lows
IWM
GDX
UGAZ Making New Lows
Russian market starting to go down again and RUSS will now go up .
XLE going Lower
TLT
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