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Wednesday, September 11, 2013

Current Rally in Stocks Not Over Yet

Sept 11 Wednesday

We do not have any SELL signal yet in the current rally in stocks, which we predicted in our  post of
Thursday Sept. 2.  This kind of rally is usually in five steps. One up, two down, three up , 4th down and finally 5th up.
We cannot be sure whether the 3rd step got completed yesterday or not but we have had 7 trading days of the rally so far. There may be one or two more days left in the third step. Remember the 3rd step itself has   5 portions. At any rate, since we have a nice  profit in TNA, we should lock our profits now. After the 3rd step has been completed,  we will have a modest decline and you can get back into TNA again. Please do not buy TZA yet as we do not have a sell signal yet on IWM ( ETF for Russell 2000).

The rest of the market has been behaving as predicted. And mind you it has nothing to do with Syria as most of the media lets you believe.

SPY

IWM
 TNA

GOLD

We gave a SELL signal on Gold   in our posting of Aug. 29.  It has been going down in 5 steps and the five steps were completed after the speech by Obama  last night ($1357).  During trading hours in New York, the low was $1359.To see this let us look at the  Gold ETF      GLD.
 GDX (Gold Miners ETF)  Notice the heavy buying in the last  two hours  yesterday in this ETF at the lowest   prices of the day. May be insiders are buying?

NUGT  (3 X leveraged ETF)

How can we tell that the top was on 8/27? Let us look at the chart from Aug 8, 2013. Remember NUGT is based on a commodity. Commodities go up & down in days not weeks or months like  common stocks on the stock markets. So let us look at NUGT in its 3rd leg rally from Aug 7, 2013


NUGT from Aug 7 to present. Notice that you could have sold on Aug 16  at the end of step (iii)or waited till the morning of Aug 27 when  it made a new high of about 105. at the end of step (v) Insiders sold near the top and bought DUST instead.
Leg 4 lasted 10 days.  Now you know when to sell . You need to buy NUGT today if you did not buy yesterday. All this has nothing to do with media and news. They do not have a clue!! They will  give some story to fit what the market is doing.

Mind you Gold mining stocks have nothing to do with what rest of the stocks are doing.

DUST

Notice while NUGT was going down, DUST was going up in five steps in the 4th leg. You would  have bought DUST (  3X Bearish ETF for Gold Miners) at $20 on Aug 27 and sold yesterday for $32

for a cool profit of 60% in 10 days without taking risk of those hedge funds who buy & sell commodities.
Don't feel bad. We will soon get an opportunity to BUY DUST when NUGT makes a new high n Leg 5 and DUST will make a new low in its 5th leg down.

2 comments :

Unknown said...

Thank you for all of your analysis and comment. I read several blogs and lots of news and I am a big fan of Elliot Wave and you have the best site for Elliot Wave other than the site itself. Again thanks for the insight. P.S. I bought your book and have recommended it to several family members and friends!

KC

Unknown said...

Thanks Kord. I really appreciate your comments . Could you post comments on Amazon for my book. This will help others and of course me.

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