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Monday, April 29, 2013

Rally continues Till at Least Previous Hghs

The rally  will continue till at least previous highs. But after this rally we will start a big decline.
TNA is still going higher. TNA is stronger than most other index based ETFs. TZA will make new lows and then we will b ready to buy it for the decline which will start in the near future.


Thursday, April 25, 2013

Market will Rally Till At Least the Previous Highs

Our prediction about the markets are proving out again.We got into TNA on Friday near the lows based upon technical analysis. TNA went up  yesterday even though DJI was down for the day. TNA will move up  sharply today and may reach the previous highs by tomorrow.
One other indicator we follow is On Balance Volume. This indicator has been going up since Friday.
Looks like SPX  can also go to previous highs before moving down again and it may happen by tomorrow.

Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Any Decline Today Will be followed by Rally into Thursday & May be Friday

Any decline today should be used to buy TNA . The decline may happen in two steps; a down , b up and then c down to a lower low. Each of these steps will have many small up and down steps. So be careful when you buy. IWM, RUT & TNA all have given Buy Signals as of yesterday.


Some people are asking us if Apple is a Buy now. The answer is NO. See the chart below.If you had used the trend following approach, you will be out of Apple as soon as it went below the 15 day moving average and stayed out till it went above the 50 day moving average. It happened in between  but you will be out soon after without any loss. Using Elliott wave , Apple is in the 5th leg down. The 5th leg down also has 5 steps. We have completed one down, two up and are in 3rd down which will be followed by 4th up and then 5th down. It can easily go to  around 350 now that the company is wasting $150 Billion by giving a small dividend and use money to buy its own stock  back.The wiser thing would have been to buy a whole bunch of small companies  with paper( shares selling around $700) and grow with their innovations.This is what Cisco used to do and it is still in the top 10 in sales growth in Silicon Valley.
And look at those dumb mutual funds who bought around 600 to 700. It will never go back to 700.This is another example of BUY & HOLD Strategy that most mutual funds in your retirement funds follow. They are making money but you will never get rich because of them.




Tuesday, April 23, 2013

The Rally from Yesterday Can Continue Till April 25

We had predicted yesterday that the market will go up starting yesterday. As a trader if you bought TNA yesterday, you can make a nice profit today or  by Thursday.We do not care where the market is going as long as we catch the big moves . You should be able to buy TNA by 7:30 AM Pacific time
.
See the charts of RUT, TNA, SPX & COMP. Once five steps down are completed the market reverses direction. Soon the big decline can start after the upside move is over. At that time we will get back into TZA.
The latest look at the charts indicates that IWM, RUT and TNA have all crossed the 15 day moving average today.






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Monday, April 22, 2013

5 Steps of First Leg Down were completed On Thursday & Friday

The High was made on April 11, 2013. First leg down had 5 steps- one down , two up, 3 down on April 15, four up and finally 5 down on 18th April for RUT, IWM, SPX. NASDAQ, DJ Transportation and TNA.The High of TZA was made  on April 15 and later on April 18 as it is reverse of the market.

DJIA completed its 5th down on morning of April 19th.
The rally can continue for two to 5 more days with minor declines in between. This rally can cover, 50% or 67% or 75% or for some indices and stocks 100% of the decline from April 11 to April 18 or April 19, 2013.
Traders can buy TNA and sell it in the next 3 to 5 days. It will not make a new HIGH.
TZA will go down with the market and you will get the opportunity to buy it back in the next 2 to 5 days.

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Volatility Continues


we still believe that DJIA can go back to highs created on nApril 11. See the chart for 6 months and for the last 5 days.


Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Market Going up for Next 2 or 3 Days

DJIA  can go back to the Previous intraday high On April11, 2013 on an intraday basis. Russell 2000 will not make a new high. SPX may not go back to previous high.
Take profits in TZA as it had a huge gain yesterday -more than 10% in one day. TZA should be bought again after DJIA goes close to previous highs.

We have talked about Gold in our book that it will go down sharply before it rises again. We have had the biggest decline in two days ever. After  short term rallies , Gold will go down again to lower levels.


Go here to buy the book   http://budurl.com/dyla       
 

Monday, April 15, 2013

BUY TZA if not Already done so

IWM and RUT both have crossed 15 day moving averages this morning. So go long on TZA.
The buy Signal was at the opening of the market.
See IWM & TZA
 below




The market's Advanced decline ratio was 7 Down & 1 Up.This was the strongest downside breadth since before the start of the rally on November 16, suggesting strongly that the character of the market has changed. NYSE volume soared to 4.6 billion shares traded .   The market has a lot of downside potential. In between we may have 2-3 day rally. Do not buy TNA at this time. You could have bought TZA at the opening. You will have chance to buy TZA again in the next 2 to 3 days, if you did not buy today.

Saturday, April 13, 2013

National Debt Clock

Friday, April 12, 2013

Market Will Decline Today

Dow Jones Industrial Average, S& P 500 made new highs yesterday.The market may decline   all day long with rallies in between. If you did not sell TZA yesterday or day before, you will get an opportunity to sell it today.  Traders among you  can buy TNA by the end of today or latest by Monday morning, as we expect the market to retest its highs of yesterday. We will sell TNA at that time or whenever it crosses below 15 day moving average. At that time we will buy back TZA.


"Europe's finance ministers meeting in Dublin on Friday are facing a renewed crisis on multiple fronts,with a backlash against austerity acting as a gloomy backdrop for negotiations over bailout extensions for Portugal and Ireland, while tackling Cyprus's botched bailout and growing worries about Slovenia.
Investors, increasingly aware of the euro zone's disarray, will be closely watching the results of that meeting.
On Thursday, Cyprus confirmed that the cost of its troika-initiated bailout had surged to 23 billion euros ($30 billion) from 17.5 billion euros, further jeopardizing its moribund economy. It has also confirmed that it may have to sell most of its gold reserves to raise about 400 million euros to finance its part of the bailout.   " CNBC


  "Cyprus holds just 13.9 tonnes of gold, worth around 585 million euros, compared to 4,800 tonnes held globally. Under the draft EC plan,the country would sell 400 million euros ($525 million) worth of bullion or round 10 tonnes, a small amount by global standards, but still potentially the biggest bullion sale in Europe since 2009
Struggling euro zone members, Italy and Portugal have much larger gold holdings, and investors are worried that if they followed suit it would really roil the market." CNBC
This is why Gold is going down sharply. In fact both  Gold and Silver made one year lows today and decline will continue. See the chart for Gold ETF GLD




Thursday, April 11, 2013

IWM & RUT crossed the 15 Day Moving Average

US Stock markets took off yesterday to new highs. This clearly shows the power of the Federal Reserve.
They have been printing money at the rate of $85 billion per month.
Yesterday, IWM and RUT both crossed the 15 day moving average on the upside. That was the time to sell TZA. If you did not sell yesterday, you will be able to sell today or tomorrow after a small correction in  two steps: a down, b up and c down. You can sell TZA at that time with some profit or gain since we bought TZA a few days ago.
The market is overbought and  may not go  much higher than SPX 1600. SPX cosed at 1588 yesterday.We will reestablish new position at that time or even sooner , if IWM crosses down below the 15 day moving average.


Thursday, April 4, 2013

Japan Devaluing Currency Big Time


"The Bank of Japan (BOJ) on Thursday unveiled sweeping changes to its monetary policy, sending a clear message that it will pull out all the stops to achieve a 2 percent inflation target in two years. But will doing everything be enough?
Japan's central bank concluded a two-day policy meeting, arguably the most highly anticipated in years, with a commitment to double its government bond holdings in two years, adopt a new balance sheet target and combine two bond-buying schemes to allow it to buy government bonds of all maturities.
"This is very much the BOJ pulling out all the stops in trying to get that 2 percent inflation target," RBC Capital Markets Senior Economist James Ashley told CNBC. "They are putting in everything that they have; the kitchen sink is being thrown in along with everything else that's sitting in the kitchen as well."
Japan's economy, the world's third largest, has been dogged by falling prices for two decades and has slipped in and out of recession. And the BOJ has faced pressure from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to adopt some bold monetary policy steps to kick start growth.
 BoJ's Aggressive Moves
James Ashley, Senior Economist at RBC Capital Markets says the Bank of Japan is pulling out all the stops to achieve the 2% inflation target. He shares his analysis on the BoJ's latest policy announcements.
The meeting was the first to be held under new Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who has pledged to do whatever it takes to achieve the 2 percent inflation target adopted by the BOJ in January.
Financial markets gave their swift verdict following the announcement: Japanese shares reversed their falls to close more than 2 percent higher, while the yen tumbled almost 2 percent to around 95.20 per dollar.  " ---CNBC
The central bank announced its goal of attaining 2% inflation within two years by doubling the monetary base through buying government bonds and other securities. In other words, the BOJ is going all in and then some by expanding QE to an monthly $77.8 billion figure . US is printing $85 billion per month. Because Japan’s GDP is only 1/3 rd of US GDP.The BOJ QE is 3 times larger than ours all to depreciate their currency against the currencies of US , China and Euro countries. Where will this all end. Only in a currency war.As we have mentioned in our book, whenever a currency is devalued, Gold in that currency goes up. So Gold can save the  savings of people in that country, otherwise their money goes to Money Heaven.
See the charts of Gold in yen in last 24 hours and in the last 6 months. This devaluation of currency will have major adverse effects on US exports to Asia and Europe.
TZA will continue to move up as US markets are on a slippery slope going down.
Since we bought TZA recently a few days ago, it has gone up 10% while most stocks are going down. Manipulation of DJIA continues every day. How long will they keep it up?

Tuesday, April 2, 2013

Direxion Announces Reverse Split 1 for 4 for TZA

 Our buy signal  on TZA has not been reversed as IWM or RUT did not make a new high today.

Dow made a new high , but Dow Jones Transportation is going down sharply. It does not matter to us whether the market goes up or down. We just follow the trend . The trend on RUT is still down.
IWM & RUT both went down and since TZA is a triple reverse ETF, it went up.

 

Direxion Announces Reverse and Forward Share Splits of 16 ETFs (3/15/2013)


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
BOSTON – March 15, 2013 – Direxion, a leader in alternative investment solutions, has announced it will execute reverse share splits for eight of its leveraged exchange-traded funds (“ETFs”), as well as forward share splits for another eight leveraged ETFs. The total market value of the shares outstanding will not be affected as a result of these splits, except with respect to the redemption of fractional shares, as outlined below.
The firm will execute a 1-for-6 reverse split of the shares of the Direxion Daily Energy Bear 3X Shares (ERY) and a 1-for-5 reverse split of the shares of the Direxion Daily China Bear 3X Shares (YANG), Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bear 3X Shares (EDZ), Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3X Shares (TECS) and Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shares (NUGT) for shareholders of record after the close of the markets on Monday, April 1, 2013. The firm will also execute a 1-for-4 reverse split of the shares of the Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ) and Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (TZA), and a 1-for-3 reverse split of the shares of the Direxion Daily Mid Cap Bear 3X Shares (MIDZ) for shareholders of record after the close of the markets on Monday, April 1, 2013.
A summary of the eight ETFs undergoing reverse splits is as follows: (Please note the CUSIP changes, effective April 2, 2013)
ETF CURRENT CUSIP NEW CUSIP RATIO
Direxion Daily Energy Bear 3X Shares (ERY) 25459W342 25459Y454 1:6
Direxion Daily China Bear 3X Shares (YANG) 25459W763 25459Y462 1:5
Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bear 3X Shares (EDZ) 25459W482 25459Y470 1:5
Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3X Shares (TECS) 25459W318 25459Y439 1:5
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shares (NUGT) 25459W250 25459Y496 1:5
Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ) 25459W144 25459Y447 1:4
Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (TZA) 25459W110 25459Y488 1:4
Direxion Daily Mid Cap Bear 3X Shares (MIDZ) 25459W136 25459Y421 1:3

Additionally, Direxion will execute a 3-for-1 forward split of the shares of the Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS), Direxion Daily Retail Bull 3X Shares (RETL), Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bull 3X Shares (EDC) and Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares (SPXL), and a 2-for-1 forward split of the shares of the Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3X Shares (DRN), Direxion Daily Latin America Bull 3X Shares (LBJ), Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (TYD) and Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares (TNA) according to the following schedule:
  • Record Date: Thursday, March 28th, 2013
  • Payable Date: Monday, April 1st, 2013
  • Ex-Date: Tuesday, April 2nd, 2013
A summary of the eight ETFs undergoing forward splits is as follows: (CUSIPs remain the same)
ETF CURRENT CUSIP RATIO
Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) 25459Y694 3:1
Direxion Daily Retail Bull 3X Shares (RETL) 25459W417 3:1
Direxion Daily Emerging Markets Bull 3X Shares (EDC) 25459Y686 3:1
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares (SPXL) 25459W862 3:1
Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3X Shares (DRN) 25459W755 2:1
Direxion Daily Latin America Bull 3X Shares (LBJ) 25459Y652 2:1
Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (TYD) 25459W565 2:1
Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares (TNA) 25459W847 2:1
Shareholders of record as of the close of business on Thursday, March 28th 2013, should expect to receive the additional shares after the close of business on the Payable Date, Monday, April 1st 2013. The shares are expected to trade at post-split prices beginning on the Ex Date, Tuesday, April 2nd 2013. Those purchasing shares that do not settle before the Record Date, but that are purchased between March 26th, 2013 and April 1st 2013 (inclusive), and do not sell their shares prior to April 2nd 2013, will be entitled to receive the additional shares, which they will receive on or about, April 4th 2013. As stated previously, the total market value of the shares outstanding will not be affected as a result of the reverse and forward splits, except with respect to the redemption of fractional shares, as outlined below.
The Depository Trust Company (“DTC”), the registered owner of all ETF shares, has been notified of the reverse and forward splits and has been instructed to adjust each shareholder’s investment accordingly.

Hypothetical Example of 1-for-6 reverse split:
1-for-6 Reverse Split
Period # of Shares Owned Hypothetical Market Price Total Share Value
Pre-Split 120 $10 $1,200
Post-Split 20 $60 $1,200

Hypothetical Example of 3-for-1 forward split:
3-for-1 Forward Split
Period # of Shares Owned Hypothetical Market Price Total Share Value
Pre-Split 30 $30 $900
Post-Split 90 $10 $900

Redemption of Fractional Shares and Tax Consequences for each Reverse and Forward Split
As a result of the reverse and forward splits, a shareholder of each ETF could potentially hold a fractional share. However, fractional shares cannot trade on NYSE Arca. Thus, each ETF will redeem for cash a shareholder’s fractional shares at the Fund’s split-adjusted NAV. Such redemptions could cause a shareholder to realize a gain or loss. Otherwise, the reverse and forward splits will not result in a taxable transaction for holders of ETF shares. No transaction fee will be imposed on shareholders for such redemptions.
“Odd Lot” Unit
As a result of the reverse and forward splits, the ETFs will have outstanding one aggregation of less than 50,000 shares to make a creation unit, or an “odd lot unit.” Thus, each ETF will provide one authorized participant with a one-time opportunity to redeem the respective odd lot unit at its split-adjusted NAV, or at the NAV on such date the authorized participant seeks to redeem the odd lot unit.

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