Markets Continued to Go Up on Higher Volume yesterday

Tuesday  Nov 26, 2013
Prior to yesterday, the market was going up on lower volume. Yesterday in 4 days the volume was higher than previous 3 days telling us that the markets are still going higher. We do not try to predict how far the markets can go on the up or downside. In spite of the macro-economic environment being weak around the world, the markets continue to go up. We do not fight these trends because of heavy printing by Central banks around the world.  We have had no SELL signal. So be cautious in both long and short sides. DJI had a bearish signal on Candle charts yesterday and so did SPY, yet the markets keep on going up.

IWM Went up on Higher volume

TZA  Making new lows

GLD  Some kind of rally coming here  . Intermediate trend still bearish

SLV

GDX  Some kind of rally possible here

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Markets Continue To Go Higher

Monday Nov 25, 2013

Markets Continue to Go Higher as USA continues to print more money, Japan is forcing its currency to get weaker and Euro  countries have reduced their interest rates to lowest levels thus trying to weaken their currency against US dollar.We have no SELL signal anywhere. The stock market is going  higher .  Given the testimony by Janet Yellen, it does appear that the Yellen Put is now in place.   This surge will be unsustainable. This rally is overbought and cannot continue for ever.

"The U.S. and five other world powers reached an interim deal with Iran Sunday to loosen economic sanctions on Tehran in exchange for steps aimed at capping its nuclear program and ensuring the country's Islamist government doesn't rush to develop atomic weapons. The deal still faces some obstacles, including within the U.S. Congress, before it becomes a permanent agreement.

Wayne Kaufman, chief market analyst at Rockwell Securities, believes the Iran news is a good excuse for the market is following the seasonal roadmap, which implies an underlying strength through Thanksgiving week and the first week of December. "News can accelerate the typical pattern," Mr. Kaufman said.

A highly-accommodative Federal Reserve, low inflation, a slow but steady economic expansion, the lack of attractive alternatives and diminished macro headwinds have helped fuel the market's gains into record territory.

"Although the buying is not robust, there has been a lack of sellers," and that means "the path of least resistance is higher," Mr. Kaufman said.

"The economy has been doing pretty well," he said. "So I think we're fine into next quarter, but the market is definitely becoming more selective."-"-CNBC

Nasdaq

QQQ

 GLD

GDX

GDX After the opening is rallying from lows. It made a new low below June lows. Look at the 6 month chart. Silver even went up in early trading. Gold after being as low as $1225 is now trading at $1242 at 7 AM Pacific Time. We can easily have a nice  rally here. China is starting Gold Swap Trading  in its own currency starting today for the first time in its history.

"The simple fact is that the futures market for gold does not come close to reflecting the current reality in the physical market, where supply and demand are greatly imbalanced. In the near term, it doesn’t matter, because the price is set in the futures markets.

But as long as those paper gold markets continue to set an unrealistically low price for the physical markets, those physical markets will continue to roar ahead with historically high demand.

By manipulating the game to such a degree, they are only hastening its end, and increasing their ultimate loss.

The near-term for gold, silver and the mining shares will continue to be volatile. But the long-term picture is still exceedingly bullish, and that will become increasingly obvious as time passes." Kitco.com

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Some Markets Have Given SELL Signals

Thursday Nov 21, 2013
We have multi year highest bullish sentiment right now telling us the market can reverse any time. Some of the US markets have given SELL signals . Others may go up one more time . DJI, SPY and DJT have not given SELL signals yet. IWM, Russell 2000, QQQ and Nasdaq have given clear SELL signals , but they can go back to recent highs or even make slightly new highs.TZA has given a clear BUY signal, but it can go down on a short term basis before rising again. Russell 2000 can go to previous highs and so can other indices or make slightly new highs. So be cautious here . The markets can reverse any time

DJI

SPY

NASDAQ

NDX top 100 Nasdaq Stocks have given a SELL signal

$DJT   ( Transportation Index)

 QQQ  has given SELL signal

GLD ( Gold ETF ) has given SELL signal for some time now . If it has to rally it has to do it now, otherwise it will go down to  $1200  and then a BIG rally.

GDX  (Gold Miners ETF) 

This is very oversold and some of the mining companies selling below book values.

Rally possible. Many hedge funds have started buying GDX as downside risk is not that great but upside move can be huge.

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Markets Around the World Continue to Move Higher

Monday Nov 18, 2013

Traders optimism has reached extreme levels  and markets have been going up around the world since last Wednesday. The Fed has gotten itself in an " unprecedented" position. Right now the markets are thinking tht tapering may not occur till March next year.

By the end of December ( if not earlier) , the interest rates may start going up not because the Fed wants it but because the bond holders do not want to wait till the end. There are no SELL signals right now.

DJI

SPY

QQQ

IWM  Not making new highs yet but can go to new highs

TZA

GLD 

GDX 

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Stock Market Rally Extending a Bit Longer

DJI, SPY and Nasdaq made new highs yesterday.  There may be one more Down Up sequence left in this market. Strictly speaking, DJI and SPY never went below the 15 day moving average convincingly so far. We will wait to get a strict SELL signal now. IWM may also go to previous highs before giving a SEL signal again. Every now and then you get whipsawed . This is one of those cases. We do not expect a big new rally even though some indices will make new highs. Insiders do sell near the highs so that they can take the markets lower later on. Volume has been weak and advance decline ratios are also not very strong.
DJI

SPY

IWM

TZA 

GLD Gold ETF

GDX ( Gold Miners Index)

GDX ( 3 Years)  Gold Miners ETF From this chart it appears that the 4th leg up may not have been completed yet . 

GOLD DEMAND From Various Countries

You can see that gold demand from India & China is huge. They are really the elephants in the room while western countries are slowly losing Gold to China and India. Thus eventually Golfd will go above previous highs as the printing of FIAT currencies continues in the West(courtesy Chart froom Kitco.com---http://www.kitco.com/ind/Thomson/2013-11-12-Modi-Man-Gold-Tonnage.html)

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Markets to resume Down Trend

Tuesday Nov 12, 2013  6:25 AM

After a weak rally yesterday on a  very low volume , the markets should move down again. DJI & SPX made new highs but rest of the markets did not follow suit especially RUSSELL 2000 and Nasdaq. All the high flyers have come down since we gave a SELL signal.
DJI

SPY

IWM Russell 2000 ETF Decline should resume

TZA  ( 3X Russell 2000 Bearish ETF) Rally should Resume

GLD Gold ETF With only 12% Bears in Gold, It should have some rally soon.

GDX  ( Gold Miners ETF) is showing Technical strength

NUGT (  3X Bullish ETF for Gold Miners)  Showing Technical strength in last two days

If Gold goes below $1251, it is a SELL. Otherwise hold it for a rally. SEE chart for last 4 days

NUGT for 60 days

EURO VS DOLLAR After Interest rates were reduced in Euro zone, Euro weakened from 1.38  to 1.33. It has now started going up again.

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Markets Around The World Giving SELL signals

Nov 8 , 2013 Friday

As we had warned you on Nov 6 that the  US market will make a new high and then start going down. The markets are giving clear SELL signals. Yesterday's big decline will result in some rallies but should be used to sell long positions.

DJI

SPY

IWM

TZA

GLD is giving a short term Sell signal but we  will not be surprised if there is a  rally . The decline in Gold & Silver is being caused by interest rate cuts by ECB.There is a currency war going on and rise in interest rates is not going to be good for US economy. We will not be surprised if Federal reserve reacts soon to reduce interest rates.

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