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Thursday, June 6, 2013

Market Decline Will Continue


Japan's debt to GDP has gone upto 230% of  the economy compared to  only 170% in 2008.
In the U.S., the debt jumped by $7 trillion since end of 2007. Our total debt hit a record $49 trillion (350% of GDP) at the beginning of  2008.Today  total U.S. debt is more than $55 trillion. We can carry this debt only because our rates are near zero.
 Now that interest rates have started rising, decline in stock  and bond markets around the world has started.  ( 30 year Mortgage rates have gone above 4% compared to less than 3.5% only a month ago.)  No amount of speeches by Federal Reserve members is going to reverse this trend. 


 Same is happening in   Japan. Their 10-year note jumped from 0.6 to near 1% in a few days. Nikkei is now down 19% from its peak in early May. The illusion of growth created by Central Banks around the world will come to an end. A currency war among nations has already started.

 

Long positions should be opened only in TZA as IWM and RUT continue to go down


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