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Tuesday, June 25, 2013

The Decline is Not Over- Sharp Rallies should be Shorted

Look what is happening to the bond market
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100840444

The Federal Reserve is panicking already. Four members of the Federal Reserve have been going around the country trying to jawbone the markets. This will only  result in small rallies like what happened yesterday. This cannot stop real losses of investors in all the mutual funds and all the ETFs  and options. The margin calls are everywhere and yet nobody is talking about it. Every time there is a rally, the public is selling but it has not reached panic levels. Till that happens, the decline will continue.
 Look at today's calender: ( Courtesy of Optionsxpress)







DateReleaseForActualBriefing.comConsensusPrior
06/25/13 8:30 AMDurable OrdersMay4.5%3.0%3.5%
06/25/13 8:30 AMDurable Goods -ex transportationMay-0.6%-0.5%1.5%
06/25/13 9:00 AMCase-Shiller 20-city IndexApr10.5%10.5%10.9%
06/25/13 9:00 AMFHFA Housing Price IndexAprNANA1.3%
06/25/13 10:00 AMConsumer ConfidenceJun72.075.076.2
06/25/13 10:00 AMNew Home SalesMay470K460K454K


To create rallies based upon looking at the rear view mirror will result in a bigger crash later on. 

All the gains  this year in European markets and developing  country markets have been wiped out. This should happen before a decent rally starts here.
DJI

Russell 2000

SPX

NASDAQ

The markets can go up to yesterday's highs and may be slightly above to fill the gaps created yesterday.

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