Make Money In Up & Down Markets

Thursday, March 19, 2015

As we have been predicting for sometime , we had a nice rally yesterday.We may have one more Down- Up move now and then the market will go down to new lows. Nasdaq will probably make a new high like Russell 2000 which has been quite strong lately.
Apple's joining DJI will not have much effect on DJI as its weighting is pretty small.

Oil will keep on going down after a brief rally yesterday. In the next 6 weeks we will make a near term low which can be as low as $33 which it reached in 2008 when there was no Shale oil production. Rest of the world is producing 30 Million barrels per day which is not going down according to Saudis. We used to produce 4.5 million barrels and now we produce 9 Million barrels per day. This is not going to come down much no matter how many rigs we shut down.

Volatility UVXY may have a minor rally today but it is going lower as the market takes some time by staying near the highs so that the insiders can distribute stocks near the highs.

Natural Gas went up in the last two days but it should make new lows.
Dollar index has been going up and too many people are bullish on it . The decline may have started yesterday. We cannot rule out another up move short term before the decline resumes.

Gold and Silver had a nice ally yesterday but it may or may not last.

DJI No Sell Signal yet. Will not exceed recent high

SPY Can go to recent high or may even exceed it

Ready to reach recent high and may exceed it

Will go down again

Will go down again with the market

ERY Will go up again

USO Oil ETF Will make new lows

GLD No Buy signal yet

GDX No Buy signal yet

NUGT No Buy signal

TLT can go to recent high

TMF 3X bullish long term bonds

SLV

USLV

IWM

TNA made a new high and going higher

UVXY made a new low and will go lower near term

SVXY

DJT

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Tuesday, March 17, 2015

As predicted we had a nice rally yesterday. The rally is not over yet. After any decline today, we will have a rally which should move most averages to higher highs than we got yesterday. All stocks will not participate in this rally.

Oil keeps on going lower as we have been predicting for some time. There is so much production in USA and abroad, we will have no storage tanks left to fill pretty soon. It hit a new 6 week low today.
Even though oil went down yesterday, ERX went up because of manipulation of the market by insiders.
Gold and Silver also are weak and unless they cross above 15 day moving averages, please stay away from them.
Volatility ETF UVXY will initially be up today, as market goes down but soon it can go to new lows.

SPY went down in 5 steps down starting on March 2.The first leg down (1) was completed on March 11 and now we are going up in Leg (2). After that we will have a much sharper leg (3) down which will make new lows for this year.It will also go down in 5 steps

Natural Gas is also going lower after any rally today. Thus DGAZ will go up after any decline today .

SPY Start with a decline and then a rally, which can end as early as tomorrow or latest by Friday

SPY in last 10 days

DJI Start with a decline and then a rally to higher highs than yesterday

NASDAQ Can go to recent highs or even slightly higher and then a sharp decline in 5 steps down

IWM

TNA

ERX 3X Energy Stocks Bull Will continue to go lower

XLE Energy ETF

UVXY After a rally today should go to new lows

SVXY 1X Bear Volatility Will go lower this morning and then go higher

GLD Gold ETF Going Lower

GDX Gold miners Going Lower

3X Gold Miners ETF Going Lower

DUST 3X Gold Bear Going Higher

DGAZ 3X Natural Gas Bear Going Lower and then higher by Thursday

UGAZ 3x Natural Gas Bull going lower

UNG Natural Gas ETF

SLV Silver ETF Going Lower

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Friday, March 13, 2015

As we had mentioned in our last post, we were in the process of completing 5 sub steps of the first leg down. RUT, IWM completed this on Wednesday morning while the DJI and SPY completed their 5 sub steps down on Wednesday near the close. The second leg up started in RUT and IWM on Wednesday and in DJI & SPY yesterday.We do not expect to see new highs in DJI & SPY but IWM may come close to new highs. Nasdaq can go to recent highs.

We had a nice rally yesterday and it is not over yet with minor declines in between.

UVXY which is 2x volatility is going down nicely and may make new lows soon while SVXY which is 1X volatility is going up . Once the market resumes its decline, UVXY will go to new highs again.

As predicted oil continues to go down and ERX is making new lows while ERY making new Highs in spite of the rally in rest of the market. Oil stocks will continue to go down as we expect oil to go below at least $40 to as low as $33 of 2008. Then we will have a big rally in Oil stocks. Our Energy Motif is going up nicely.

Financials also moved up nicely. We have no Buy signal in Gold or Silver.

Dollar started going down and it will go down more on a short term basis as everybody was bullish on Dollar. It has completed 5 steps up in its recent leg ( or may complete soon)which started in May last year. This has been 3rd leg up and will now be followed by 4th leg down which will last several months. That will be followed by 5th leg up to new highs for the dollar.

Greece and Germany are continuing their war of words. This is happening when the social mood is upbeat in Germany because of rising stock market. What will happen when the market goes down ( it will happen soon ) which nobody is expecting right now ? We believe the best course for Greece is to exit Euro zone and go back to their own currency. All their debts will be gone ( they cannot ever pay them back) and by devaluing their currency, their exports will rise and once again Greece will become a tourist paradise.( How can you enjoy a vacation there right now when everybody serving you is angry?)

As predicted Natural Gas is going down and DGAZ which is 3X bearish Natural Gas continues to go up and will make new highs as the weather is going to be warm for a while. We have once again a BUY signal in DGAZ after a scare of two days when the insiders took it down sharply.

We are in a deflationary environment. That is why PPI is down 0.5% this morning . For the 12 months ending February annual inflation declined 0.6%. Folks we are also in a deflationary environment like Europe. No matter how many dollars and Euros they print, there will be no inflation and no growth to speak of in USA and Europe.

SPY