Make Money In Up & Down Markets

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

We pointed out in our last post that the 3rd step of the First leg down had not been completed till last Friday. Yesterday we may have completed the 3rd step down and a short 4th step up followed by a new 5th step low. In some cases the 5th step down may not have been completed but we are very close.

Today Federal reserve meeting results will be announced and no matter what they say we have a Pre Christmas rally in Leg two up coming and it may be a nice rally . Some of the stocks may go back to recent highs or may even make new highs. This reminds me of Health related stocks specially triple Health related ETF CURE which we use in our Bull and Bear Motif. Similarly airline stocks may make new highs. Do not expect big rallies in stocks which have big losses. In energy stocks and in small caps and Gold mining shares people will keep on selling till the end of this year. So please do not buy these stocks no matter how much down they are.
Gold stocks will have nice rallies in 2015 as we expect big up moves in Gold and silver. We are not sure about energy stocks as deflation worldwide can bring these stocks even lower.

DJI

SPY

SPY last ten days

IWM

TLT Getting out of Stocks & getting into bonds. Interest rates keep on going down

TMF

GLD gave a SELL signal on Monday

SLV gave a Sell signal on Monday

GDX keeps on going down

NUGT keeps on going Down & DUST keeps on going up

UVXY Going up but on any rally it will go down sharply

SVXY

keeps on going down but on any rally it will go up sharply

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Monday, December 15, 2014

As predicted, the market completed its step two up of the decline Thursday morning and started the 3rd step down. The step 3 intensified on Friday and markets have wiped out all of the gains for the last 5 weeks. The decline may continue down during the week of Dec 15 to Dec 20th and then some kind of rally will develop before Christmas.

Energy related stocks and even Gold mining stocks and 90% of the SPX 500 stocks declined on Friday.
This is no surprise to our readers. It is clear Step 3 was not completed on Friday .After the 3rd step down is completed today or tomorow, it will be followed by a small 4th strp up and then a 5th step down.
Only after that we will have some kind of a rally before Christmas and New year. We expect much bigger decline in 2015.
DJI

SPY

IWM Russell 2000 decline is not over yet . Any rally will be followed by further decline.

TNA 3X bullish Russell 2000 ETF wil go down more after any rally today.

TZA 3X Bearish ETF will go higher after any minor deline today

GLD There is no sell signal in this Gold ETF even though Gold may go lower

SLV

SLV NO Sell signal Yet

GDX Gold Miners ETF Selling going on in this ETF by all those who have had Losses in Gold mining shares all year long.

NUGT Gave a SELL signal last Wednesday No Buy Signal. Going Lower

DUST Going Higher No Sell signal yet.

XLE Energy ETF No Buy signal yet Some consolidation going on

ERY 3X Bearish ETF No Sell signal yet

ERX 3X Bullish No Buy signal yet May consolidate here

TMF 3X Bullish ETF for Long Term bonds . No SELL signal yet

UVXY Volatility 2X ETF May go higher after some consolidation today. We started a Motif based on movement of VIX. It is called Volatility -Bear or Bull. The inverse 2X ETF is SVXY which is going lower while UVXY goes higher

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Thursday, December 11, 2014

As expected, Tuesday morning the market opened sharply lower but then shot back up with Nasdaq closing positive for the day. Russell 2000 had a strong rally also on Tuesday recovering most of the decline. It made it up yesterday with the largest decline equal to 2.25%. The first leg of the decline started last Friday. We completed the First step down on Tuesday morning followed by second step the same day. The 3rd step down started yesterday and is not over yet. It will be followed by 4th step up and then 5th step down. After that we will get a sharp rally in leg two and then even bigger decline in Leg 3 Down

Market will open higher this morning to suck in some more retail investors, but will be followed by further declines.
Short term energy stocks may have seen the bottom yesterday or today. So one should not short Energy stocks till a meaningful rally happens.

Gold miners had bad earnings all year long. Many people have had big losses in Gold mining stocks.
They will be taking losses before the end of the year. We are starting a Gold Miners Motif today on Motifinvesting.com

DJI

SPY

SPY Chart since Friday Dec 5, 2014

IWM

TNA

TZA

XLE Our Motif in Energy -Bull or Bear stocks had a gain of 30% since Oct 15, 2014

ERX

ERY We took profits in ERY yesterday.

GLD Ready to consolidate . No Sell signal yet.

SLV

GDX Gold Miners giving a SELL signal

NUGT 3 X Miners ETF giving a SELL signal

DUST Giving a Buy Signal . This is 3X Bear for Gold Miners

TLT Long term interest rats keep on going down and TLT keeps on going up

TMF keeps on going higher

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Tuesday, December 9, 2014

As predicted, the market started the big decline yesterday.Most commentators have been saying that in the month of December any big decline cannot start. In the past November is usually down till Thanksgiving and then the rally for December and January happens.

This year is different. We had a rally in November and it got extended till Dec 6 and even till Dec 8 so that insiders could distribute stocks to willing retail buyers. For the last 12 days more and more have been buying into this fake rally in spite of reaching 18 Trillion debt.They will now be mercilessly butchered in December which probably will continue throughout 2015.

Japan continues to devalue its currency and so does the Euro Zone. Russia is also in recession. Iran is in recession also and all countries which depend on oil revenues are heading towards recession. Countries which are going through bad times and are in a bad social mood do not come to any useful agreement no matter how many sanctions we impose on them. The root cause of racial strife in this country is also lack of jobs for the masses. Fake numbers are being published practically every week with almost 23% of the population being unemployed and underemployed.

Even though DJI & SPX have been making new highs, NYA, Russell 2000 and Energy stocks have not made new highs. This divergence will now come to an end and rest of the market will head lower making new lows below October lows .
The decline happens in 5 legs one down, two up, three down, fourth up and 5th down. Each of the legs has 5 steps also.

In our motifs on Motifinvesting.com we will watch out for these legs and steps for you.
Maximum Decline will happen in Russell 2000 stocks and ETFs and also in energy stocks.
Markets around the World are going Down

European markets are all down