Update For Nov 17, 2014 Premarket

Russell 2000 has already started to go down. It is lower than it was 11 days ago on Oct 31, 2014. SPY and DJI made their highs on Thursday  Nov 13 and QQQ made the high on Nov 14 . They are all ready to go down now.  Most retail investors and many traders are ALL IN. Bullishness is at record levels. That is when the rally comes to an end.

The world's third-largest economy Japan  contracted an annualized 1.6 percent in the July-September quarter, data showed on Monday. The economy contracted a revised 7.3 percent in the second quarter.
 Japan is technically in recession. We talked about Japan calling it a basket case in our blog of Nov 7, 2014.
See the Japanese ETF in US dollars. All of the recent gains have been lost last night.

 Many countries in Euro Zone are in a deflationary recession or will be soon. Then it will be our turn. War in Ukraine will heat up again and Iraq and Syria will be problem areas for a long time.

 Gold made a low around $1130 last week  when most people were bearish and gave a BUY signal on Friday. It is not clear whether it is a long term buy or a short term buy.

Similarly Silver also gave a short term Buy signal. Gold miners also gave a Buy signal after being down 70% from highs set up in 2011.

DJI

SPY

IWM  : Will give a SELL signal soon

TNA

TZA   Ready to give BUY signal

TLT  Interest rates going down

TMV  Going Down Again

TMF    Going Up again. Will not go to recent highs

GLD  Gold giving a short term buy signal

GDX

NUGT  Giving a BUY signal

DUST Continues to go down

SLV  Silver going up

UGAZ  Going up. May not go to recent highs

XLE  Energy stocks will go lower again after two day rally from recent lows

ERX  Will go down soon

ERY

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Even though Markets in Eurozone went down and have not gone above September lows, markets in USA still have not given a SELL signal. Distribution is happening in a big way now almost for 10 days. Markets are being moved UP and Down   near all time highs to distribute to retail investors. We still do not have a SELL signal on DJI, SPY and NASDAQ

SPY

DJI

IWM

TNA

ERX going down

GLD  Still no Buy Signal

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Premarket Nov. 11 , 2014 Tuesday

We have many  insiders which include  Market Makers, Specialists, Hedge Funds , Large Operators and Professional Money who are playing in the market with the cooperation of central banks. Their main job is to buy at the bottom and fill up their coffers. Then they distribute this stock at the peak to retail investors and speculators. Let us look at the few charts

SPY  which is ETF for SPX :Look at how they load up at the bottom and Sell at the top at the highest prices.All rallies now are nothing more than distribution of stocks near the top to retail investors. The lowest advance decline ratio in the last 7 days was yesterday . Also the lowest volume was yesterday in 7 days. Thus the rally yesterday to new highs was merely a manipulated rally.

The way to distribute stock is to move it Up &Down with GOOD news. They have been  making  new highs in DJI, SPX & Nasdaq to suck in those who shorted a few days ago or who were hesitating till today.

 Once they have distributed all shares near the top, they will take the market down again to fill  up their coffers again near the lows.  The best way to distribute stock is to use media to publish good news. The retail investors BUY because they are afraid of missing a rally. It is all because of greed.

 All stocks, Gold &  Silver are being manipulated so that suckers can buy and insiders can get out.  Exchange markets are manipulated by Governments around the world but eventually they fail.  Look at what is happening to NIKKEI.


The market is like a large  tanker. It takes time to change direction. Look at SPY . They have kept it near the top for 8 trading days. Folks, they are  distributing stocks to the willing lambs before they butcher them mercilessly.


Why should not they do it? They make billions and SEC lets them do it legally. The best way for us is to follow the insiders and sell when they sell & buy when they accumulate. The rally can end any day may be even today.
Dollar has been getting stronger and that is why Gold , Silver and Oil have been going down.This strong dollar will affect  earnings of International companies badly.
SPY

DJI

IWM

TNA

TZA

GLD

NUGT

XLE  Ready to give a SELL signal

ERX

ERY  Ready To Go Higher

SLV

USLV

UGAZ  Gone down on low volume. Going up to new highs soon

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Nov. 7 , 2014 Friday Premarket

The debt levels that we have in the developed economies are so high that it will create collapse in many economies.

Japan is already a basket case . Tax revenue in Japan is 43 Trillion Yen . Debt service plus social security payments are 120% of tax revenues. They have to borrow 50% of the budget just to survive day to day. The Yen is already down 35 % since 2012. It was 70 Yen to the dollar in 2012. In the last week  alone it has gone down by 10%. Today  it is 115 and it will keep on going down to 120 and then to 150 and eventually to 200 Yen to the Dollar

Japan’s recent moves are troublesome. It appears that Japan is moving its pension funds offshore as it prepares to default. Same thing happened in Zimbawe. Before they defaulted they kept on devaluing their currency and their stock market soared. Eventually their currency became worth less and stock market also collapsed.

Europe is slowly but surely becoming a basket case. Greece is still going to default  sooner or later.  Greece’s Debt/GDP keeps on going up and it will be  impossible for the Greeks to get out of the vicious cycle they are in .

Italy is the next country where debt level keeps on growing. They are already at 140 percent  Debt/Gdp.This is about 2 Trillion Euros. IMF or Germany cannot save them. 

 If China starts devaluing their currency like Japan, we will have a real currency war and everybody will  lose. No matter what the Eurozone  and Japan do their economies cannot be saved.

 People are looking around the world and seeing the United States as the refuge in terms of currencies.  But that is going to cause major problems for the Fed and the government because the stronger the dollar becomes, the more jobs will be exported outside of the country, and the higher the trade deficit.  So this will lead to a huge crisis for the United States. The U.S. government has been continuing its borrowing spree, as federal debt has increased from $9 trillion to $18 trillion in the last 6 years.  Government borrowing and spending doesn’t grow an economy.  

A default by Japan will be very harmful to stock markets around the world.

Specialists and market makers are selling  at the highs of the market while the retail investor is buying every time DJI  makes a new high. Soon the trend will change for the big decline. Russell 2000 and NYA  have not made new highs in the last 5 trading days. Volume is low and advanced decline line is weak. So a decline should start soon.

Earnings of all US  International companies will suffer. It is already happening to many US iconic companies . Two more recent examples: Salix Pharmaceuticals SLXP and Priceline

SLXP Down 50 points in one day

Priceline  Down 100 points in one day.

 Dji  No Sell signal yet but getting closer

SPY

IWM

TNA

TZA

GLD  No Buy signal yet

GDX

DUST  No Sell signal yet

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The markets will go slightly above recent highs before starting the downtrend. Gold and Silver are making new lows. Energy related stocks will have a slight rally today before resuming their decline again.

DJI

SPY

IWM

TZA

GLD  making new lows

DUST  Going Higher 

XLE

Consolidating today

ERY

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