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Friday, December 6, 2013

DEC 6, 2013 Friday

As we had mentioned in our Blog of Wednesday Dec 4, the markets made a low and started going up from the lows. Insiders like to suck in as many suckers as possible near the highs and then bring the markets down.  It is happening again. So even though some markets gave a SELL signal, it is being reversed now. Not all stocks will participate in this rally but wait till the markets reach previous highs. Nasdaq may make even new highs and so may be RUSSELL 2000.
DJI
SPY
IWM
TNA
TZA
GLD No Buy Signal yet  but Gold appears to have stabilized and ready to go higher above recent highs
GDX ( Gold Miners)

Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Wednesday Dec 3, 2013

US Markets have been weakening but there is  a good possibility that Stocks can go back to previous highs. DJI & SPY have given SELL signals but not IWM or COMP. As the markets will go back to previous highs, do not buy TZA yet. Markets may start going up as early as today.

DJI

SPY
Comp
IWM  Not A SELL signal yet
TZA NO BUY signal yet
GLD ( Gold ETF)

GDX Gold Miners ETF
Euro Zone Equities Giving SELL signals as predicted in our Blog of Monday
 DAX German Sock Index


Monday, December 2, 2013

Monday Dec 2, 2013
Some Eurozone Markets have started giving SELL signals. These include British, French and Italian markets. Japanese market keeps on going up as the Japanese Government continues to weaken its currency to near 103 yens to the dollar compared to only 75 yens a year ago.

FTSE 100 Index  For the last 15 trading sessions, FTSE has been weak.

French  CAC 40 Index
Italian  MIB IDX
Similarly Australian Market has been Weakening
ASX 200 Index for the last 15 sessions has been weakening and have given SELL signal

US markets are giving  topping signals on Candle stick charts

DJI
SPY
TZA


GLD  Gold is weak again this morning even though demand for Gold Bullion is at highest levels in countries like China & India. Demand in India is being restrained by Govt of India to save foreign exchange reserves.
GDX is retesting its recent lows 90% of advisers are bearish on Gold at this time . So a rally cannot be ruled out at current levels or after Gold goes down near $1200
We do not believe there will be any taper this year . Taper may not start till next year. The reason is that if that happens, the 10 year rates will first go to 3 % and then to 4%. If that happens , the interest on our outstanding debt will be so high that we will not be able to afford it. This is the same situation in Japan. They cannot afford to increase their 10 year rates to go up beyond 1%.
Let us look at current debt vs GDP for the highest indebted countries(Wall Street Journal)
Japan's Debt to GDP is 238%. USA ratio is 105.6% . Here we are in the company of Portugal, Italy, Ieland, Greece and Japan which have the highest ratios.




Let us look at the chart of GLD in more detail
GLD 2 years




Look at GLD (Gold ETF) for the last 6 months
We are completing Leg 3 of (5). It will be followed by leg 4 up and then leg 5 down of (5). So we are getting close to the final bottom.





Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Tuesday  Nov 26, 2013
Prior to yesterday, the market was going up on lower volume. Yesterday in 4 days the volume was higher than previous 3 days telling us that the markets are still going higher. We do not try to predict how far the markets can go on the up or downside. In spite of the macro-economic environment being weak around the world, the markets continue to go up. We do not fight these trends because of heavy printing by Central banks around the world.  We have had no SELL signal. So be cautious in both long and short sides. DJI had a bearish signal on Candle charts yesterday and so did SPY, yet the markets keep on going up.
IWM Went up on Higher volume
TZA  Making new lows

GLD  Some kind of rally coming here  . Intermediate trend still bearish

SLV
GDX  Some kind of rally possible here

Monday, November 25, 2013


Monday Nov 25, 2013

Markets Continue to Go Higher as USA continues to print more money, Japan is forcing its currency to get weaker and Euro  countries have reduced their interest rates to lowest levels thus trying to weaken their currency against US dollar.We have no SELL signal anywhere. The stock market is going  higher .  Given the testimony by Janet Yellen, it does appear that the Yellen Put is now in place.   This surge will be unsustainable. This rally is overbought and cannot continue for ever.




"The U.S. and five other world powers reached an interim deal with Iran Sunday to loosen economic sanctions on Tehran in exchange for steps aimed at capping its nuclear program and ensuring the country's Islamist government doesn't rush to develop atomic weapons. The deal still faces some obstacles, including within the U.S. Congress, before it becomes a permanent agreement.

Wayne Kaufman, chief market analyst at Rockwell Securities, believes the Iran news is a good excuse for the market is following the seasonal roadmap, which implies an underlying strength through Thanksgiving week and the first week of December. "News can accelerate the typical pattern," Mr. Kaufman said.

A highly-accommodative Federal Reserve, low inflation, a slow but steady economic expansion, the lack of attractive alternatives and diminished macro headwinds have helped fuel the market's gains into record territory.

"Although the buying is not robust, there has been a lack of sellers," and that means "the path of least resistance is higher," Mr. Kaufman said.

"The economy has been doing pretty well," he said. "So I think we're fine into next quarter, but the market is definitely becoming more selective."-"-CNBC



Nasdaq

QQQ
 GLD

GDX
GDX After the opening is rallying from lows. It made a new low below June lows. Look at the 6 month chart. Silver even went up in early trading. Gold after being as low as $1225 is now trading at $1242 at 7 AM Pacific Time. We can easily have a nice  rally here. China is starting Gold Swap Trading  in its own currency starting today for the first time in its history.

"The simple fact is that the futures market for gold does not come close to reflecting the current reality in the physical market, where supply and demand are greatly imbalanced. In the near term, it doesn’t matter, because the price is set in the futures markets.
But as long as those paper gold markets continue to set an unrealistically low price for the physical markets, those physical markets will continue to roar ahead with historically high demand.
By manipulating the game to such a degree, they are only hastening its end, and increasing their ultimate loss.
The near-term for gold, silver and the mining shares will continue to be volatile. But the long-term picture is still exceedingly bullish, and that will become increasingly obvious as time passes." Kitco.com

Thursday, November 21, 2013

Thursday Nov 21, 2013
We have multi year highest bullish sentiment right now telling us the market can reverse any time. Some of the US markets have given SELL signals . Others may go up one more time . DJI, SPY and DJT have not given SELL signals yet. IWM, Russell 2000, QQQ and Nasdaq have given clear SELL signals , but they can go back to recent highs or even make slightly new highs.TZA has given a clear BUY signal, but it can go down on a short term basis before rising again. Russell 2000 can go to previous highs and so can other indices or make slightly new highs. So be cautious here . The markets can reverse any time

DJI
SPY
NASDAQ
NDX top 100 Nasdaq Stocks have given a SELL signal

$DJT   ( Transportation Index)
 QQQ  has given SELL signal
GLD ( Gold ETF ) has given SELL signal for some time now . If it has to rally it has to do it now, otherwise it will go down to  $1200  and then a BIG rally.
GDX  (Gold Miners ETF) 
This is very oversold and some of the mining companies selling below book values.
Rally possible. Many hedge funds have started buying GDX as downside risk is not that great but upside move can be huge.

Monday, November 18, 2013

Monday Nov 18, 2013

Traders optimism has reached extreme levels  and markets have been going up around the world since last Wednesday. The Fed has gotten itself in an " unprecedented" position. Right now the markets are thinking tht tapering may not occur till March next year.
By the end of December ( if not earlier) , the interest rates may start going up not because the Fed wants it but because the bond holders do not want to wait till the end. There are no SELL signals right now.

DJI

SPY
QQQ


IWM  Not making new highs yet but can go to new highs

TZA
GLD 

GDX 

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