What a rally!! 700 points in two days in DJI.  We were right on the button. Even though we were expecting a nice rally , we did not expect such a strong rally.  Most short sellers have been covering.Our readers had been warned before the opening on  Wednesday.This clearly looks like a rally in a bear market. What will go down now? Energy stocks, and small capital Russell 2000 type stocks and may be  Gold  and Silver Mining stocks. Natural gas stocks are headed even lower. Even Silver and Gold look weak.

The current rally  is not over yet. The insiders need to distribute to willing retail buyers who think we are  headed towards DJI 20,000 . Nothing could be further from the truth. The rally will go up in two main steps: "a" up followed by "b" down and finally " c "up. Step a might have been completed yesterday or may do so  this morning. Then next week we will have step c up to recent November highs . Then will start a big decline in the new year. You see the big decline cannot start till the insiders have distributed the stocks they bought  on Tuesday evening near the lows. Distribution will be done by taking the market up and down several times  and this distribution  may last till Dec 31, 2014 on low volume.

DJI

SPY There is an  error in the last bar of the chart

CURE   May make  a New High in the next  two weeks

TNA  Ready to go down again

TZA

GLD

SLV  looks weaker than Gold

NUGT

TLT  No Sell signal Yet

TMF

XLE

ERX   Will go down again after the rally is over

SVXY   will go down again after the rally is over

UGAZ  Going Lower  There is too much natural gas and till the weather becomes colder, this one is going lower

DGAZ  will keep on going up as it is 3X inverse ETF. This is why our natural gas Motif  keeps on going up

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We pointed out in our last post that the 3rd  step of the First leg down  had not been completed till last Friday. Yesterday we may have completed the 3rd step down and a short 4th step  up followed by a new 5th step low.  In some cases the 5th step down may not have been completed but we are very close.

Today Federal reserve meeting results will be announced and no matter what they say we have a Pre Christmas rally in Leg two  up  coming and it may be a nice rally . Some of the stocks may go back to recent highs or may even make new highs. This reminds me of Health related stocks specially triple Health related ETF CURE which we use in our Bull and Bear Motif. Similarly airline stocks may make new highs.  Do not expect big rallies in stocks which have big losses. In energy stocks and in small caps and  Gold mining shares people will keep on selling till the end of this year. So please do not buy these stocks no matter how much down they are.
Gold  stocks will have nice rallies in 2015 as we expect big up moves in Gold and silver.    We are not sure about energy stocks as deflation worldwide can bring these stocks even lower.

DJI

SPY

SPY last ten days

IWM

TLT Getting out of Stocks & getting into bonds. Interest rates keep on going down

TMF

GLD gave a SELL signal on Monday

SLV  gave a Sell signal on Monday

GDX keeps on going down

NUGT   keeps on going  Down & DUST keeps on going up

UVXY Going up but on any rally it will go down sharply

SVXY

keeps on going down but on any rally it will go up sharply

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As predicted, the market completed its step two up of the  decline Thursday morning and started the 3rd step down. The step 3 intensified on Friday and markets have wiped out all of the gains  for the last 5 weeks. The decline may continue down   during the week of  Dec 15 to Dec 20th and then some kind of rally will develop before  Christmas.

Energy related stocks and even   Gold mining stocks and 90% of the SPX 500 stocks  declined  on Friday.
This is no surprise to our readers. It is  clear  Step 3 was not  completed on Friday .After the 3rd step down is completed  today or tomorow, it will be followed by a small 4th strp up and then a 5th step down.
Only after that we will have some kind of a rally before Christmas and New year. We expect much bigger decline in 2015.
DJI

SPY

IWM  Russell 2000 decline is not over yet . Any rally will be followed by further decline. 

TNA    3X bullish  Russell 2000 ETF wil go down more after any rally today.

TZA  3X Bearish ETF will go higher after any minor  deline today

GLD  There is no sell signal in this Gold ETF  even though Gold may go lower

 

SLV

SLV   NO Sell signal Yet



GDX  Gold Miners ETF   Selling going on in this ETF by all those who have had Losses in Gold mining shares all year long.

NUGT    Gave a SELL signal last Wednesday No Buy Signal.  Going Lower

DUST  Going Higher  No Sell signal yet.

XLE  Energy ETF   No Buy signal yet Some consolidation going on

ERY  3X Bearish ETF   No Sell signal yet

ERX  3X Bullish  No Buy signal yet  May consolidate here

TMF  3X Bullish ETF for Long Term bonds . No SELL signal yet

UVXY   Volatility   2X  ETF   May go higher after some consolidation today. We started a Motif based on movement of VIX.    It is    called    Volatility -Bear or Bull.  The inverse  2X  ETF is SVXY  which is going lower while UVXY goes higher

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As expected, Tuesday morning the market opened sharply lower but then shot back up with Nasdaq closing positive for the day. Russell 2000 had a strong rally also on Tuesday recovering most of the decline. It made it up yesterday with the largest decline equal to 2.25%. The first leg of the decline started last Friday. We completed the First step down on Tuesday morning followed by second step the same day. The 3rd step down started yesterday and is not over yet.  It will be followed by 4th step up and then 5th step down.  After that we will get a sharp rally in leg two and then even bigger decline in Leg 3 Down

 Market will open higher this morning to suck in some more retail investors, but will be followed by further declines.
Short term energy stocks may have seen the bottom yesterday or today. So one should not short Energy stocks till a meaningful rally happens.

Gold miners had  bad earnings all year long. Many people have had big losses in Gold mining stocks.
They will be taking losses before the end of the year. We are starting a Gold Miners Motif today on Motifinvesting.com

DJI

SPY

SPY Chart since Friday Dec 5, 2014

IWM

TNA

TZA

XLE Our Motif in Energy -Bull or Bear stocks had a gain of 30% since Oct 15, 2014

ERX

ERY  We took profits in ERY yesterday.

GLD Ready to consolidate . No Sell signal yet.

SLV

GDX  Gold Miners giving a SELL signal

NUGT    3 X Miners ETF giving a SELL signal

DUST  Giving a Buy Signal  . This is 3X Bear for  Gold Miners

TLT   Long term interest rats keep on going down and TLT keeps on going up

TMF  keeps on going higher

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